An implementation plan for building integrated PV-modules in Valby in Copenhagen.

Copenhagen Energy and Urban Renewal Copenhagen a large-scale implementation plan for PV-modules in Valby in Copenhagen during 25 years until 2025. The idea is to work with a very ambitious implementation plan for an entire city quarter, Valby in Copenhagen. Here it is the aim when the sun is shining to cover up to 50% of the electricity supply from PV-modules in 2025.

The advantage of the suggested strategy is that the implementation of PV-modules in Valby can be a model for how large areas of PV-modules can be integrated in a whole city quarter in a well-ordered way.

Today the installed electricity capacity in Valby is approx. 25 MW. If the consumption can be reduced so an installed electricity capacity of 20 MW is enough then a capacity from PV-modules of 10 MW will cover half of the electricity consumption when the sun is shining.

Price level of PV-modules
Today the price of large installed areas of PV-modules with crystalline PV-modules is approx. DKK 4,500 per kWp (DKK 45/Wp). With building integrated PV-systems that are at the same time cooled by ventilation air to the building behind, to obtain a 10% increase of the electricity yield and at the same time a heat contribution to the ventilation air, an additional investment of DKK 1,500 per m² PV-area (or DKK 15/Wp) is expected. The above mentioned combination where PV-modules are cooled by ventilation air is regarded as a very relevant solution to PV-systems in the future, partly because it due to indoor climate and requirements of energy saving measures during a few years is expected that there will be a requirement of combined exhaust and air inlet ventilation systems with heat recovery and partly because by this combination the consumer can obtain a considerable improved economy for the contemplated installation of PV-modules.

As regards prices of PV-modules, the Solar-300 programme in Jutland with PV-systems for 300 one-family houses has demonstrated that by large campaigns about PV-systems with common purchases it was possible to attain a price of installed PV-modules of a little below DKK 4,000 per m² and new investigations indicates that within the next couple of years the price will be as low as DKK 33,000 per kWp (or DKK 33/Wp) if a new project is going to be carried out with large purchases of PV-systems for single-family houses.

Below is stated a possible price development in DKK per Wp of building integrated PV-systems designs during the next 25 years. A development that, however, could be quicker if the many existing implementation plans for PV-modules in the Western World set the development and sale going. The period until 2006 it is aimed that is expected to be characterised by campaigns, while from 2006 a real market is going to secure the development, in the beginning with a standard grants e.g. from the Danish Energy Agency.

Table 1.

Year: -----> Expected installed PV costs (DKK/Wp):
2000-2003 ----->33-55
2004-2006 ----->28-45
2010 ----->25-40
2018 ----->20-30
2020 ----->15-20

With a future total price of installed PV-modules of DKK 1,500 per m² or DKK 15 per Wp it is today the ordinary opinion that PV-systems will be competitive to conventional electricity production. The shown development is supported by many sources with knowledge about PV-systems and by the fact that until today the price of PV-modules has typically been reduced by 50% each seventh year.

Due to the above, the following average prices can be expected in connection with an implementation plan for building integrated PV-modules:

A: year 2000 - 2003: 43,000 DKK/kWp
B: year 2004 - 2006: 36,000 DKK/kWp
C: year 2007 - 2010: 32,000 DKK/kWp
D: year 2010 - 2018: 25,000 DKK/kWp
E: year 2018 - 2025: 17,500 DKK/kWp

On the basis of these prices, the economy of a implementation plan for PV-modules in Valby, where the aim is to establish 10 MWp or 10,000 kWp equal to 100,000 m² PV-modules within 2025 (50% coverage), will be the following:

Suggestion to implementation plan for PV-modules in Valby:
A: year 2000 - 2003: 400 kWp × 43,000 DKK/kWp = 17 million DKK
B: year 2004 - 2006: 500 kWp × 36,000 DKK/kWp = 18 million DKK
C: year 2007 - 2010: 1750 kWp × 32,000 DKK/kWp = 56 million DKK
D: year 2010 - 2018: 3250 kWp × 25,000 DKK/kWp = 81 million DKK
E: year 2018 - 2025: 5000 kWp × 17,500 DKK/kWp = 88 million DKK
Total = 260 million DKK

Please note that according to the above, a standard grant to the PV-modules ought to cover the expenses of item C, D and E, equal to the present for solar heating, which can also be supplemented by EU-funding and other sources of funding.

Status and suggestion to contents
As part of a previous EU-funded Thermie project, Cenergia has already installed approx. 9 kWp PV-modules in Valby and in the autumn of 2000/beginning of 2001 another three small pilot projects with building integrated PV-modules, which in all cases are cooled by/preheat the ventilation air, will be carried out in Valby.

These are 60 m² PV-modules in connection with an ecological laundrette in the Folehaven buildings together with e.g. the company Rockwool and PV-systems for the community centre in Valby and the school Ålholmskolen.

To obtain an optimised result in connection with an implementation plan for PV-systems in Valby it will be necessary to start the effort with some planning, which can e.g. include an architectural competition of how PV-modules can be integrated in the best way in a number of different building types.

The best way to secure the optimum benefit of a large commitment to PV-modules in Valby and Copenhagen will in the writer's opinion be to establish an actual long-term action plan for PV-systems, e.g. organised as the Dutch PV-agreement. In Holland they have already installed approx. 7 MWp PV-modules (70,000 m²) and in 2020 the aim is to reach 1,400-1,500 MWp PV-modules, equal to 14-15 million m². The plan involves players from the energy administration, utility companies, research institutions and the business sector, including the building industry.

In connection with the contemplated demonstration projects with PV-systems, conditions as ownership of the PV-systems have to be settled, e.g. divided between the utility company, building owner and maybe the local authorities, possibly organised in some kind of PV-guild.

Furthermore, the work on implementation of PV-modules ought; however, to be combined with an effort about energy and electricity savings on a total economy basis. The present work on involving producers of building elements in the development ought to be increased. As e.g. development work on roof systems for PV-modules by Danish Eternite, use of the ProRock system with integration of PV-modules from Rockwool, facade designs with PV-modules and ideas about prefabricated coffered roof designs with PV-modules. These solutions are now being tested in research projects, which have already obtained some grants from the Danish Energy Agency or the EU.